University enrolment continues to surprise
by Léo Charbonneau
The upward climb in university enrolment continues to surpass expectations, with full-time undergraduate enrolment up 3.6 percent this fall over last year, according to preliminary estimates by the Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada. Full-time graduate enrolment is up 4.6 percent.
This is the seventh consecutive year of strong growth, says Herb O'Heron, AUCC's senior adviser. "We haven't seen these sorts of year-over-year increases since the 1960s."
What is surprising about the enrolment growth, at the undergraduate level, is that it far outpaces the growth in the underlying population of 18- to 21-year-olds, who make up the bulk of under-graduate students (see accompanying chart). In the past four years, the popu- lation of 18- to 21-year-olds in Canada grew 2.5 percent, while undergraduate enrolment soared 25 per cent, or 10 times faster. "This is unprecedented," said Mr. O'Heron.
Enrolment growth is also outstripping earlier AUCC projections. In 2002, the association projected that total university enrolment would grow by up to 30 percent from 2001 to 2011, which translates into 200,000 additional students. According to that projection, enrolment would be up by no more than 90,000 students by this point. In reality, it has grown by 130,000 students in the past three years.
"Clearly, students are responding to messages from parents and peers, and to signals from the labour market about the value of a university education," said Mr. O'Heron.
The picture for first-year undergraduate enrolment is a bit more complicated, and reflects differing situations from province to province. In British Columbia, for example, first-year enrolment is up a strong 5.3 percent. This is mostly due to pent-up demand and the B.C. government's decision to expand the postsecondary system to accommodate 25,000 additional spots by 2010, says Don Avison, president of the University Presidents' Council of B.C. However, in neighbouring Alberta, first-year enrolment is down 6.4 percent.
At the University of Calgary, the drop in first-year enrolment was intentional due to funding constraints, said Peggy Patterson, associate vice-president, student affairs, and the person responsible for her institution's enrolment management.
"Our institution is at 120 percent capacity," said Dr. Patterson. The university decided, therefore, to cap enrolment at 2002 levels. "We really felt we didn't have any option if we were going to maintain the quality of the student experience."
In Ontario, meanwhile, first-year numbers are down more than 10 percent. This is an anomaly due to last year's double-cohort bulge and was fully expected, said Jamie Mackay, vice-president, policy and analysis, at the Council of Ontario Universities. "We expect that next year's entering class will once again be higher than this year's," he said. Regardless, overall undergraduate enrolment in the province continued to rise this year as the double cohort makes its way through the system.
But, as in Alberta, Ontario universities are feeling constrained in their ability to respond to increased enrolment demand, said Mr. Mackay. Without major new funding from the province, they may not be able to continue to meet demand, he said. Former Ontario Premier Bob Rae was asked by the provincial government last spring to review the province's postsecondary system and he is expected to file his report at the end of January.
Nova Scotia also saw declines in first-year enrolment. Chuck Bridges, vice-president, external, at Saint Mary's University, said a number of factors were at play, including demographic shifts and competition for students from universities across Canada as well as within the province from the fledgling Nova Scotia Community College system. The province's universities also saw enrolment increases last year from Ontario's double cohort that weren't there this year.
